地基微波辐射资料在短时暴雨潜势预报中的应用

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黄治勇, 徐桂荣, 王晓芳, 唐永兰. 地基微波辐射资料在短时暴雨潜势预报中的应用[J]. 应用气象学报, 2013, 24(5): 576-584. 复制到剪切板

Huang Zhiyong, Xu Guirong, Wang Xiaofang, Tang Yonglan. Applications of Ground-based Microwave Radiation Data to Short-term Rainstorm and Potential Forecast[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2013, 24(5): 576-584 复制到剪切板

地基微波辐射资料在短时暴雨潜势预报中的应用

黄治勇, 徐桂荣, 王晓芳, 唐永兰

中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室，武汉 430074

2012-09-20 收到, 2013-05-07 收到修改稿.

资助项目: 国家自然科学基金项目 (41205086)，国家自然科学基金重点项目 (40930951)

通讯作者: 黄治勇, email: hzyqxj@126.com.

摘要: 利用湖北咸宁站2008年6月1日—2012年8月1日地基微波辐射计观测数据反演的相对湿度、大气液态水含量、大气水汽总量、大气层结曲线，对比分析了短时暴雨与一般降水过程发生前微波辐射计观测资料反映的特征，研究微波辐射计观测资料在短时暴雨潜势预报中的应用。结果表明:当大气液态水含量从1 mm左右急增至约20 mm、大气水汽总量从60~70 mm急增到90 mm以上之后，如果0~6 km整层相对湿度均接近饱和或达到饱和状态，且在800~950 hPa附近存在逆温层，最大K指数超过35℃，最大TT指数 (Thei-Tornqvist指数) 达到或超过40℃，那么未来3 h或6 h内发生短时暴雨的几率大。

关键词: 微波辐射暴雨潜势预报

Applications of Ground-based Microwave Radiation Data to Short-term Rainstorm and Potential Forecast

Huang Zhiyong, Xu Guirong, Wang Xiaofang, Tang Yonglan

Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan 430074

Abstract: Microwave radiometer (MWR) can derive the profiles of relative humidity, atmospheric liquid water content, and atmospheric water vapor content with high temporal resolution. Using MWR measurements from June 2008 to August 2012 of Xianning Station in Hubei Province operated by the Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, based on 523 precipitation cases, the characteristics of MWR measurements before the occurrences of short-term rainstorms with more than 50 mm precipitation in 3 hours or 6 hours and other general rainfalls are analyzed, and the applications of MWR measurements in the forecast of short-term rainstorms are explored. For both short-term rainstorms and general rainfalls, the relative humidity in 0—6 km heights is close to saturation or is saturating in 3 hours before the rainfall occurrence, and no distinct difference is found between these two kinds of precipitations, however, the transforming of relative humidity from unsaturation to saturation always means the occurrence of rainfall process. Within 12 hours before the short-term rainstorm occurrence, the integrated liquid water (ILW) increases sharply from about 1 mm to about 20 mm, and the integrated water vapor (IWV) increases rapidly from 60—70 mm to 90 mm or more, which are helpful for the potential analysis of short-term rainstorm forecast. Compared with the short time rainstorm, amplitude and rate of occurrence of precipitation of ILW and IWV growth will be much smaller. Within 6 hours before the short-term rainstorm occurrence, a temperature inversion layer exists near 800—950 hPa, and the largest K index and TT index are above 35℃ and 40℃, respectively, otherwise, the atmospheric stratification curve is unstable, and the unstable energy may be larger than 1000 J·kg^-1 or maybe small depending on the maintenance of weak precipitation before the rainstorm occurrence. Of all the historical cases, there is a part of general rainfalls also occur with unstable atmosphere and temperature inversion at the bottom level. Therefore, it cannot be determined whether short-time rainstorm will occur only by the atmospheric stratification stability. In conclusion, when the ILW increases sharply from about 1 mm to about 20 mm, and the IWV increases rapidly from 60—70 mm to 90 mm or more, if the relative humidity is close to saturation or is saturating in 0—6 km heights, and a temperature inversion layer exists near 800—950 hPa, and additionally, the largest K and TT index are above 35℃ and 40℃, then the probability of the occurrence of a short-term rainstorm is large in coming 3 hours or 6 hours. The verification with 519 other general rainfall cases shows that, using these criterions, 2 cases matches the above characteristics, and the false alarm rate is about 0.4%.

Key words: ground-based microwave radiation rainstorm potential forecast

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