近50年东北地区热量资源变化特征

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刘实, 王勇, 缪启龙, 丁园圆. 近50年东北地区热量资源变化特征[J]. 应用气象学报, 2010, 21(3): 266-278. 复制到剪切板

Liu Shi, Wang Yong, Miao Qilong, Ding Yuanyuan. Variation Characteristics of Thermal Resources in Northeast China in Recent 50 Years[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2010, 21(3): 266-278 复制到剪切板

近50年东北地区热量资源变化特征

刘实^1,2, 王勇¹, 缪启龙¹, 丁园圆¹

1. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京 210044;吉林省气象科学研究所,长春 130062;
2. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京 210044

2009-07-28 收到, 2010-03-03 收到修改稿.

资助项目: 中国气象局气候变化专项“东北粮食生产格局的气候变化影响与适应”(CCSF-09-13)、中国气象局省所科技发展专项“气候变化情景下吉林省未来农业气候条件影响评估”(CMATG2008S03)和吉林省省长基金项目(2007)共同资助

摘要: 利用1951-2005年东北地区100个气象站日平均气温资料, 得出各年代稳定通过10 ℃，0 ℃积温及其持续天数和起止日期分布的变化, 进而分析了气候变暖背景下东北地区热量资源的变化特征。结果表明:东北地区气温持续增暖, 线性趋势达0.4 ℃/10 a, 较我国其他地区更为显著, 且与各热量资源指标有较好的相关性。东北地区气候变暖使得稳定通过10 ℃，0 ℃积温普遍显著升高, 且稳定通过10 ℃，0 ℃积温的持续天数也普遍显著增加；稳定通过10 ℃，0 ℃积温和持续天数的等值线在东北平原和相对平坦的内蒙古高原向北大幅度推进, 而在山区有向高海拔地区抬升的趋势；稳定通过10 ℃，0 ℃积温持续天数普遍增加是受到起始日期提前和终止日期延后的影响, 而且起始日期提前比终止日期延后的影响更明显。东北地区热量资源的变化有利于东北地区粮食产量的提高和稳定。

关键词: 东北地区气候变暖热量资源积温持续天数

Variation Characteristics of Thermal Resources in Northeast China in Recent 50 Years

Liu Shi^1,2, Wang Yong¹, Miao Qilong¹, Ding Yuanyuan¹

1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044;
2. Jilin Provincial Institute of Meteorological Sciences，Changch 130062

Abstract: Using the daily average air temperature data from 100 meteorological stations in Northeast China from 1951 to 2005, the variation of accumulated temperature steadily above 10 ℃ and 0 ℃, their lasting days, the beginning and ending date is summarized, and then the variation characteristics of thermal resources under the background of climate warming are analyzed. The air temperature increases continuously in Northeast China, and the climatic trend rate of the annual average air temperature is 0.4 ℃/10 a, more significant than any other region in China. And it is well correlated with the thermal resource indexes such as the accumulated temperature steadily above 10 ℃ and 0 ℃, and their lasting days, and the beginning and ending date. Climate warming has made the accumulated temperature steadily above 10 ℃ and 0 ℃ increase significantly in Northeast China widespread. The accumulated temperature steadily above 10 ℃ has also increased significantly by more than 40 ℃·d/10 a. The lasting days of accumulated temperature steadily above 10 ℃ and 0 ℃ increase significantly too. The increasing amplitudes are more than 2 d/10 a on average and reach up to more than 4 d/10 a in the north region of Northeast China. For some regions of Inner Mongolia close to Mongolia, southern Liaoning Province, southern Heilongjiang Province, Changbai Mountains and the west part of Jilin Province, the lasting days increase by 2-4 d/10 a. The contours of accumulated temperature steadily above 10 ℃ and 0 ℃ and their lasting days move greatly northward in Northeast China Plain and relatively flat Inner Mongolia Plateau, and an uplift trend from mountain areas to high altitude areas is found on the contours. The beginning dates of accumulated temperatures steadily above 10 ℃ has advanced by 0.1-2.9 d/10 a, and at some stations of Northeast China Plain, the advancing trends are more than 1.0 d/10 a. On the other hand, the ending dates has delayed to a less obvious extent by 0.0-2.1 d/10 a, and the stations with the delaying trends more than 0.8 d/10 a centralize in Liaoning Province and Changbai Mountains in Jilin Province. The beginning dates of accumulated temperatures steadily above 0 ℃ have advanced by 0.8-4.3 d/10 a, while the ending dates have delayed by 0.0-2.1 d/10 a, and the stations of the significant delayed ending dates centralize in the north region of Northeast China with the trend more than 1.0 d/10 a. These changes in thermal resources are conductive to increase food production and maintain the stability of food production in Northeast China.

Key words: Northeast China climate warming thermal resources accumulated temperature lasting days

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图 1. 东北地区年平均气温与热量资源的距平曲线及趋势线 Fig 1. The variation and trend of annual mean air temperature and thermal resources in Northeast China


图 2. 东北地区1951—2005年稳定通过10℃(a) 和0℃(b) 积温的变化趋势分布 (单位:℃·d/10a) Fig 2. The trend distribution of accumulated temperature steadily above 10℃(a) and 0℃(b) in Northeast China from 1951 to 2005 (unit: ℃·d/10a)


图 3. 东北地区1951—2005年各年代稳定通过10℃(a) 和0℃(b) 积温分布 (单位:℃·d) Fig 3. The interdecadal distribution of accumulated temperature steadily above 10℃(a) and 0℃(b) in Northeast China from 1951 to 2005 (unit:℃·d)


图 4. 东北地区1951—2005年稳定通过10℃(a) 和0℃(b) 积温持续天数趋势分布 (单位:d/10a) Fig 4. The trend distribution of lasting days of accumulated temperature steadily above 10℃(a) and 0℃(b) in Northeast China from 1951 to 2005 (unit:d/10a)


图 6. 各代表站的稳定通过10℃积温 (a) 和0℃积温 (b) 变化 Fig 6. The variation of accumulated temperature steadily above 10℃(a) and 0℃(b) of the representative observation stations