长江下游百年一遇的极值风速分布

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黄世成, 周嘉陵, 任健, 陈兵, 程婷. 长江下游百年一遇的极值风速分布[J]. 应用气象学报, 2009, 20(4): 437-442. 复制到剪切板

Huang Shicheng, Zhou Jialing, Ren Jian, Chen Bing, Cheng Ting. Speed Distribution of 100-year Extreme Winds in Lower-reaches of the Yangtze[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2009, 20(4): 437-442 复制到剪切板

长江下游百年一遇的极值风速分布

黄世成¹, 周嘉陵², 任健³, 陈兵⁴, 程婷⁴

1. 江苏省气象科学研究所, 南京 210008;
2. 江苏省气象台, 南京 210008;
3. 江苏省气象局, 南京 210008;
4. 江苏省气候中心, 南京 210008

2008-05-19 收到, 2009-03-04 收到修改稿.

资助项目: 江苏省自然科学基金重点项目 (BK2006730) 和“十一五”国家科技支撑计划“苏通大桥建设关键技术研究”重点项目“安全减灾技术研究专题”(2006BAG04B06) 共同资助

摘要: 利用2000-2006年长江下游沿江8个风速、风向观测点与邻近气象站同步对比观测资料和1971—2006年长江下游40个气象站风资料, 依据具99%置信水平的数理重构方案和极值Ⅰ型计算方法, 详细给出长江下游百年一遇风速分布状况。结果表明:长江下游沿江地区百年一遇极值风速为25~38 m/s, 较一般方法上限高3 m/s, 下限低2 m/s; 长江南京—镇江段和南通—崇明段, 是长江下游沿江地区的两个大风区, 百年一遇极值风速不低于29 m/s, 其在入海口附近可达34 m/s以上; 在长江常州—江阴段, 江南、江北对称分布两个风速相对低值区, 百年一遇极值风速为23~24 m/s。该结果充分考虑气象站风速资料和局地风速状况, 是沿江相关工程气象应用的重要补充。

关键词: 长江下游置信上限极值风速

Speed Distribution of 100-year Extreme Winds in Lower-reaches of the Yangtze

Huang Shicheng¹, Zhou Jialing², Ren Jian³, Chen Bing⁴, Cheng Ting⁴

1. Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Science, Nanjing 210008;
2. Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210008;
3. Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Nanjing 210008;
4. Jiangsu Climate Center, Nanjing 210008

Abstract: In engineering meteorological application the basic wind speed of 100-year return period is commonly confirmed according to the recommend value of national regulation or China basic wind speed distribute map by the method of interpolation. In order to avoid both the potential hazard in engineering design and the higher cost in construction, which may be caused by the low re solution of the basic wind speed distribute map in low er-reaches of the Yangtze and the lacking of actual wind speed data along the river, eight short-term wind observation points are selected along low er-reaches of the Yangtze, and the observation runs synchronously with their neighboring meteorological stations from 2000 to 2006. So the observation pro gram is set up to meet the demand of engineering constructions along low er-reaches of the Yangtze. The observation points are built by on-side investigation to eliminate the extreme terrain effects and can represent the actual wind of the low er-reaches to the largest extent. At every observation point, it is assured that more than one year of simultaneous observation with its adjacent weather station is carried out, although the observational time for each point is not always homology. Based on the short-term synchronous wind data and the annual maximum wind speeds of 40 weather stations of lower-reaches of the Yangtze from 1971 to 2006, the 99% confidence level logistic reconfiguration scheme and extreme value Ⅰ type calculation procedure are referred also a new wind speed distributive status over lower-reaches of the Yangtze is described in detail. Results indicate that along low er-reaches of the Yangtze the 100-year return period maximum wind speed is 25 to 38 m· s^-1 which is 3 m ·s^-1 larger than upper limit and 2 m · s^-1 smaller than lower limit of the result by the general method. lower-reaches of the Yangtze, two gale regions exist both in the Nanjing-Zhenjiang segment and in the Nantong-Chongming segment, where the 100-year return period maximum wind speed is greater than 29 m ·s^-1 and even above 34 m · s^-1 near the entrance. It is also found that on both sides of Changzhou-Jiangyin river segment two lower extreme wind speed regions are symmetrical distribution, where the 100-year return period maximum wind speed is about 23 to 24 m· s^-1. Fully considering the wind data of weather stations and the local wind speed observation, the results are important supplement for the concerned meteorological application works.

Key words: lower-reaches of the Yangtze confidence upper limit extreme wind speed

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图 1. 利用1971-2006年常规气象资料计算的长江下游百年一遇最大风速分布 (单位:m/s) Fig 1. Maximum wind speed distribution map of 100-year return period in lower-reaches of the Yangtze using 1971-2006 conventional observations (unit:m/s)


图 2. 常规与沿江同步观测资料计算的长江下游百年一遇最大风速分布 (单位:m/s) Fig 2. Maximum wind speed distribution map of 100-year return period in lower-reaches of the Yangtze using conventional and simultaneous data (unit:m/s)