我国东部季风区冬季气温的气候变暖特征

引用本文

陈少勇, 郭忠祥, 高蓉, 韩通. 我国东部季风区冬季气温的气候变暖特征[J]. 应用气象学报, 2009, 20(4): 478-485. 复制到剪切板

Chen Shaoyong, Guo Zhongxiang, Gao Rong, Han Tong. The Climatic Variety and Anomaly of the Winter Mean Air Temperature of the East Monsoon Area in China[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2009, 20(4): 478-485 复制到剪切板

我国东部季风区冬季气温的气候变暖特征

陈少勇^1,2, 郭忠祥², 高蓉², 韩通²

1. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所, 甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室, 中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室, 兰州 730020;
2. 白银市气象局, 白银 730900

2008-12-10 收到, 2009-05-11 收到修改稿.

资助项目: 国家自然科学基金项目 (40775057) 资助

摘要: 利用我国东部季风区375个测站1961-2006年平均地面气温资料, 采用线性趋势分析、EOF, REOF, MannKendall、小波分析等方法, 分析了季风区冬季气温异常变化规律。结果表明:我国东部季风区冬季气温增温明显, 近46年增温率为0.39 ℃/10a, 增温率从南向北增大, 黄河南部气温的稳定性高于北部, 增温不显著的区域主要在季风区的南部, 川东和云南局部有显著的下降趋势。根据REOF分析将该区冬季气温异常细分为南、中、北部区3个分区, 各区气温异常变化存在准5年和22年周期, 从20世纪70年代初期开始气温转为上升, 普遍在1986-1987年发生了突变, 在21世纪初气温开始回落。异常偏暖年大部分出现在1990年以后。

关键词: 我国季风区冬季气温气候变暖

The Climatic Variety and Anomaly of the Winter Mean Air Temperature of the East Monsoon Area in China

Chen Shaoyong^1,2, Guo Zhongxiang², Gao Rong², Han Tong²

1. Institute of Arid Meteorology, Key laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu, Key laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of CMA, Lanzhou 730020;
2. Meteorological Bureau of Baiyin, Baiyin 730900

Abstract: Spatial anomaly features and time evolution rule of the winter mean air temperature in China' s east monsoon area are analyzed using data from 375 stations over the years of 1961-2006, adopting the methods of linear regression analysis, multinomial fitting, EOF, REOF, Mann-Kendall, Glide t-examination, Wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis etc. The incalescence rate is 0.39 ℃/10 a in the recent 46 years, and the annual maxim incalescence occurs in February. The air temperature has taken on an increment trend since 1971. There is a remarkable mutation in 1987 and from then the air temperature reached to a more remarkable warmer period, then the temperature slightly dropped at the beginning of this century. The stability of winter temperature to the north of yellow river is higher than the south. The change of air temperature in most of the regions takes on an obvious uptrend. The incalescence rate increased from south to north. The areas where the getting-warmer trend is inconspicuous are mainly to the south of monsoon area. Using the EOF method analysis, the abnormity of winter mean air temperature in monsoon area of east of China is divided into two common distributive modes: The all area unanimous model and the quasi north and south difference model. Using the REOF method analysis, the area can be divided into 3 sub-areas: The south, the middle and the north monsoon areas. Temperature of the monsoon area is mainly of the all area unanimous model. In the whole areas, 80% of the top-ten warmer years are later than 1990. The exceptional change of air temperature is periodical with a cycle of about 5 years and a cycle of 22 years. Air temperature has turned in to rise in the early years of 1970s in each area, and there is a generally remarkable mutation during 1986-1987.

Key words: monsoon area in China winter mean air temperature climatic warming

[]	IPCC.Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[2]	丁一汇, 任国玉, 石广玉. 气候变化国家评估报告 (Ⅰ):我国气候变化的历史和未来趋势. 气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3, (增刊): 1–5.
[3]	唐国利, 任国玉. 近百年来我国地表气温变化的再分析. 气候与环境研究, 2005, 10, (4): 791–798.
[4]	秦大河, 陈振林, 罗勇, 等. 气候变化科学的最新认知. 气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3, (2): 63–73.
[5]	任国玉, 徐铭志, 初子莹, 等. 近54年我国地面气温变化. 气候与环境研究, 2005, 63, (6): 942–956.
[6]	孙林海, 赵振国. 我国暖冬气候及其成因分析. 气象, 2004, 30, (12): 57–60.
[7]	屠其璞, 邓自旺, 周晓兰. 我国气温异常的区域特征研究. 气象学报, 2000, 58, (3): 288–296.
[8]	宋连春. 近40年我国气温时空变化特征. 应用气象学报, 1999, 5, (1): 119–124.
[9]	江志红, 丁裕国. 近百年上海气候变暖过程的再认识---平均温度与最低、最高温度的对比. 应用气象学报, 1999, 10, (2): 151–159.
[10]	马柱国, 符淙斌, 任小波, 等. 我国北方年极端温度的变化趋势与区域增暖的联系. 地理学报, 2003, 58, (增刊): 11–20.
[11]	钱维宏, 张玮玮. 我国近46年来的寒潮时空变化与冬季增暖. 大气科学, 2007, 23, (2): 238–244.
[12]	黄嘉佑, 胡永云. 我国冬季气温变化的趋向性研究. 气象学报, 2006, 64, (5): 614–621.
[13]	周晓霞, 王盘兴, 段明铿, 等. 我国季平均气温和降水局地同时相关的时空特征. 应用气象学报, 2007, 10, (2): 601–609.
[14]	于淑秋. 近50年我国日平均气温的气候变化. 应用气象学报, 2005, 16, (6): 787–793.
[15]	周小珊, 陈力强, 李辑, 等. 全球气候变暖条件下沈阳若干气候特征的变化. 高原气象, 2005, 24, (5): 823–828.
[16]	曾琮, 陈创买, 李晓娟. 广东冬季气温时空变化特征. 气象, 2005, 31, (3): 56–60.
[17]	陈佩燕, 倪允琪, 殷永红. 近50年来全球海温异常对我国东部地区冬季温度异常影响的诊断研究. 热带气象学报, 2001, 17, (4): 371–380.
[18]	喻世华, 颜景容. 1979年东亚夏季风环流建立过程的分析. 热带气象学报, 1986, 2, (1): 55–61.
[19]	汤绪, 孙国武, 钱维宏. 亚洲夏季风北边缘研究. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007.
[20]	Zeng X, Lu R, Globally unified monsoon onset and retreat indexes. J Clim, 2004, 17: 2241–2248.
[21]	王绍武. 气候系统引论. 北京: 气象出版社, 1994.
[22]	符淙斌, 王强. 气候突变的定义和检测方法. 大气科学, 1992, 16, (4): 482–493.
[23]	林振山, 邓自旺. 小波气候诊断技术的研究. 北京: 气象出版社, 1999: 21-26.
[24]	Stephane Mallat, Wen Liang Hwang, Singularity detection and processing with wavelets. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 1992, 38, (2): 630–637.
[25]	陈少勇, 孙秉强. 白银市霜冻的气候变化及对农业生产的影响. 甘肃科学学报, 2006, 18, (4): 46–49.
[26]	黄嘉佑. 气象统计分析与预报方法. 北京: 气象出版社, 2000.
[27]	李栋梁, 谢金南, 王文. 我国西北夏季降水特征及其异常研究. 大气科学, 1997, 21, (3): 331–340.
[28]	陈少勇, 董安祥. 祁连山区低云量的气候变化与异常研究. 高原气象, 2006, 25, (3): 545–548.
[29]	马振锋, 彭骏, 高文良, 等. 近40年西南地区的气候变化事实. 高原气象, 2006, 25, (4): 633–642.
[30]	林学椿, 于淑秋, 唐国利. 我国近百年温度序列. 大气科学, 1995, 19, (5): 525–534.
[31]	Chen Shaoyong, Shi Yuanyuan, Wang Liping, Impacts of climate variation on fog in China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2006, 16, (4): 430–438. DOI:10.1007/s11442-006-0406-6
[32]	施能. 我国近100年来4个年代际的气候变化特征. 气象学报, 1995, 53, (4): 431–439.
[33]	陈隆勋. 我国近45年来气候变化的研究. 气象学报, 1998, 56, (3): 257–271.
[34]	North G R, Thomas L B, Cahalan R F, Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Wea Rev, 1982, 110: 699–706. DOI:10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0699:SEITEO>2.0.CO;2
[35]	王永光, 龚振淞, 许力, 等. 我国温度、降水的长期气候趋势及其影响因子分析. 应用气象学报, 2005, 16, (增刊): 85–91.


图 1. 我国东部季风区冬季气温空间分布 (a) 以及年际变化 (b) 和M-K检验曲线图 (c) (c中A, B为显著水平α=0.05的临界值) Fig 1. Spatial distribution (a) and interannual variation (b) and M-K examination curve chart (c) of the winter mean air temperature of the east monsoon area in China (A, B for marginal value in Fig. c)


图 2. 我国东部季风区冬季气温长期变化线性趋势空间分布图 (a) 增温率, (b) 增温显著性 Fig 2. The spatial distribution of linear trend of long-term variation of the winter mean air temperature of the east monsoon area in China (a) the incalescence rate, (b) remarkably incalescence areas


图 4. 我国东部季风区冬季气温REOF分析的前3个特征向量 (a~c) 及气候分区 (d) (阴影部分表示RLV值大于0.6的区域) Fig 4. The first 3 characteristic vectors (a-c) and the three climatic sub-areas (d) of the REOF analysis of the winter mean air temperature of the east monsoon in China (shaded part means areas with value of RLV > 0.6)


图 5. 我国东部季风区3个分区冬季气温时间演变 Fig 5. The interannual departure variation of winter mean air temperature of three climatic sub-areas of the east monsoon in China