热带气旋路径集合预报试验

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王晨稀, 梁旭东. 热带气旋路径集合预报试验[J]. 应用气象学报, 2007, 18(5): 586-593. 复制到剪切板

Wang Chenxi, Liang Xudong. Ensemble Prediction Experiments of Tropical Cyclone Track[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2007, 18(5): 586-593 复制到剪切板

热带气旋路径集合预报试验

王晨稀, 梁旭东

中国气象局上海台风研究所, 中国气象局台风预报技术重点开放实验室, 上海 200030

2006-07-25 收到, 2007-01-08 收到修改稿.

资助项目: 中国气象局预测减灾司2005年区域中心预测减灾业务服务能力建设项目与上海台风研究基金(2005ST006)共同资助

摘要: 以MM5模式为试验模式，分别用增长模繁殖法（BGM）和模式物理过程扰（MPP）形成12个集合成员，对2005年登陆我国的8个热带气旋进行了52次路径集合预报试验，以寻找适合西北太平洋热带气旋路径的集合预报方法。结果表明：BGM方法的集合预报结果总体上好于控制试验结果，其中对强度较弱的热带气旋的集合预报效果更好。MPP方法的集合预报结果总体上不如控制试验结果，但对初始时刻强度达到台风的热带气旋的集合预报效果较好，集合预报相对于控制试验的改进效果明显。基于BGM方法和MPP方法集合预报的不同特点，将两种方法相结合形成扰动成员，这一综合方法的集合预报效果好于单一方法的集合预报效果。BGM方法和MPP方法的系统发散度总体上都偏小。

关键词: 集合预报热带气旋路径增长模繁殖法

Ensemble Prediction Experiments of Tropical Cyclone Track

Wang Chenxi, Liang Xudong

Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030

Abstract: In order to find the ensemble prediction method that can be used to forecast the tracks of tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific Ocean, 52 cases tropical cyclone track ensemble prediction experiments are made, the 52 cases are from the 8 tropical cyclones that made landfall at China in 2005. MM5 model is used as the experiment model. The model has a horizontal grid spacing of 45 km with 115×115 points and 23 vertical sigma layers. It is run for 72 h. The model domain center is same as the center of experiment tropical cyclone. There are 12 ensemble members. 12 members consist of 11 perturbation members and a control forecast. Two methods are used to create the perturbation members. One method is breeding of growing modes (BGM), in which two 12-h breeding cycles are carried out. The other method is model physics perturbation (MPP), in which members are created by choosing different physics parameterization schemes. The experiment results show that the ensemble mean of BGM is better than the control forecast and the ensemble mean of MPP is worse than the control forecast. For BGM, the ensemble mean for the tropical cyclones whose initial intensity is smaller than 32.6 m/s is more skillful than the ensemble mean for the tropical cyclones whose initial intensity is larger than 32.6 m/s. For MPP, the ensemble mean for the tropical cyclones whose initial intensity is larger than 32.6 m/s is better than the control forecast. According to the different results of BGM ensemble and MPP ensemble, a new method is used to create the perturbation members. In this new method, when the initial intensity of tropical cyclone is smaller than 32.6 m/s, BGM method is used to create the perturbation members, when the initial intensity of tropical cyclone is larger than 32.6 m/s, both BGM method and MPP method are used to create the perturbation members. The ensemble mean of this method is better than the ensemble mean of BGM or MPP. The spreads of BGM ensemble, MPP ensemble and the new method are all too small.

Key words: ensemble prediction tropical cyclone track breeding of growing modes

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图 2. BGM方法(a)和MPP方法(b)预报的0513“泰利” 72 h路径 (起报时刻8月28日20:00, 其他说明同图 1) Fig 2. The 72 h tracks of Talim(0513)forecasted by the methods of BGM(a)and MPP(b) (the initial time is 20:00 on August 28, others as in Fig.1)


图 3. BGM方法(a)和MPP方法(b)预报的0515“卡努” 72 h路径 (起报时刻9月9日08:00, 其他说明同图 1) Fig 3. The 72 h tracks of Khanum(0515)forecasted by the methods of BGM(a)and MPP(b) (the initial time is 08:00 on September 9;others as in Fig.1)


图 4. 试验A、试验B和试验C的52次预报的平均技巧水平R Fig 4. The mean skill levels R from 52 forecasts of test A, test B and test C


图 6. 不同方法预报的0509“麦莎” 72 h路径 (起报时刻8月5日20:00, 其他说明同图 5) Fig 6. The 72 h tracks of Maisa(0509)forecasted by different methods (the initial time is 20:00 on August 5; others as in Fig.5)


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