﻿ 黑龙江森林火灾初次扑救派出人员数量模拟与分析
 林业科学  2004, Vol. 40 Issue (1): 162-167 PDF
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#### 文章信息

Jin Sen, Yu Lifeng.

Simulation and Analysis of Number of Firefighters Dispatched in Initial Attack of Forest Fire in Heilongjiang Province

Scientia Silvae Sinicae, 2004, 40(1): 162-167.

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Simulation and Analysis of Number of Firefighters Dispatched in Initial Attack of Forest Fire in Heilongjiang Province
Jin Sen, Yu Lifeng
College of Forest Resource and Enviroment, Northeast Forestry University Harbin 150040
Abstract: The numbers of firefighters dispatched in initial attacks of forest fires with different fire parameters in Heilongjiang Province were obtained by sending questionnaires to county level fire commanders. Nonlinear Multivariable models were established to simulate the number from fire parameters in the paper. Analysis was also made on the factors affecting the dispatch decision. The results showed that (1) the models could simulate the process very well. (2) The models constructed based on the data from a single county had much better performance than those based on combined data of several counties. (3) Most of the commanders involved regarded wind as the principal factor in the decision-making and the distance to burning site of the second importance and the area burned the third when the area is less then 2 hm2. (4) The weight of distance to burning site increased with the years of fire fighting that a fire commander has engaged.
Key words: Initial attack    Forest fire    Heilongjiang Province

1 材料与方法 1.1 研究地区介绍

1.2 数据收集

1.3 分析方法 1.3.1 初次派出人员数量模型的建立

1.3.2 影响派出人员数量的因素分析

2 结果和分析 2.1 问卷回答情况

2.2 派兵数量模型

 (1)

 (2)

18个县级模型除黑河2外，相关系数都很高高，模拟误差小，模拟派出人员数量和实际值之间的关系基本如图 1a所示。而汇总模型如全省模型、伊春和黑河两地区模型类模型的模拟值与实际值差别较大，其模拟派出人员数量和实际值之间的关系见图 1b。这说明以县级为单位或单个问卷数据为基础建立的派出人员模型准确度高，而基于多地区或多问卷数据建立的模型模拟能力很低。这反映了决策水平的地区或个人间的差异。在今后的林火扑救辅助决策研究中，应根据各地情况分别建立模型，而不是多个县合在一起。

 图 1 模型模拟能力检验 Fig. 1 Performance of different models
2.3 对影响派出人员决策因素的分析 2.3.1 火场情景因子对初次派兵数量的影响

2.3.2 指挥员工作背景对各权重的影响

3 结论

4 讨论

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