﻿ 基于模糊证据推理的集装箱船航行路径选择
 舰船科学技术  2022, Vol. 44 Issue (16): 143-146    DOI: 10.3404/j.issn.1672-7649.2022.16.030 PDF

Route selection of container ship cargo transportation based on fuzzy evidential reasoning
WANG Wei
Jiangsu Shipping College, Nantong 226010, China
Abstract: In order to save the time cost of container ship cargo transportation, a method of container ship cargo transportation route selection based on fuzzy evidential reasoning is proposed. Calculate the operation cost of container ship cargo transportation, construct a fuzzy subset of container ship transportation path according to the operation cost, input the fuzzy subset into the container ship cargo transportation path selection model based on Fuzzy evidential reasoning, obtain the ship transportation path risk factor, and obtain the container ship navigation path confidence selection matrix by constructing the fuzzy confidence selection matrix and defuzzifying, Using this matrix, we can get the result of cargo transportation route selection of container ships. The experimental results show that the calculation error of the shipping operation cost of container ships based on this method is very small, which can effectively select the most suitable shipping route and reduce the shipping time cost of container ships.
Key words: fuzzy evidential reasoning     container ships     transportation of goods     route selection     time cost
0 引　言

1 集装箱船舶货物运输路径选择 1.1 船舶货物运输运营成本计算

 ${T_t} = \frac{1}{{n \cdot {v_z}}}\cdot\sum\limits_u {\sum\limits_e {O_{ue}^k} }。$ (1)

 ${T_{md}} = \sum\limits_u {{t_u} + \left[ {\frac{{\displaystyle\sum\limits_u {\displaystyle\sum\limits_e {({G_{ue}} + {G_{eu}})} } }}{{{r_u}}}} \right]} /{f_k} 。$ (2)

 $\begin{split} T = &\frac{1}{{n \cdot {v_z}}}\cdot\sum\limits_u {\sum\limits_e {O_{ue}^k} } +\sum\limits_u {t_u} + \left[ {\frac{{\displaystyle\sum\limits_u {\displaystyle\sum\limits_e {({G_{ue}} + {G_{eu}})} } }}{{{r_u}}}} \right] /{f_k} 。\end{split}$ (3)
1.2 构建集装箱船舶运输路径模糊子集

 ${\varphi _R} = \left\{ \begin{array}{ll} 1&({Y_1}, \cdots ,{Y_n}) \in R({X_1}, \cdots ,{X_n}) ，\\ 0& {\rm{others}} 。\end{array} \right.$ (4)

 $F = \frac{{\displaystyle\sum\nolimits_i {{\varphi _i}} }}{{\displaystyle\sum\nolimits_i {{Y_i}} }} 。$ (5)
1.3 基于模糊证据推理的运输路径选择模型

 ${\varpi _l} = \sum\limits_{k = 1}^K {{\lambda _k}\varpi _l^k} 。$ (6)

 ${\bar \varpi _l} = \frac{{{\varpi _l}}}{{\displaystyle\sum\limits_{l = 1}^L {\varpi _l^{}} }} 。$ (7)

 ${U_{ij}}({Z_n},R{F_l}) = \sum\limits_{k = 1}^K {{\lambda _k}U_{ij}^k({Z_n},R{F_l})} 。$ (8)

 $\tilde X = \left[ \begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {Z_1} \\ {Z_2} \\ \vdots \\ {Z_3} \end{array} \right] = \left[ \begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {{\tilde X}_1}(1)& \cdots & {{\tilde X}_1}(L) \\ {{\tilde X}_2}(1)& \cdots& {{\tilde X}_2}(L) \\ {} & \cdots &{} \\ {{\tilde X}_N}(1)& \cdots & {{\tilde X}_N}(L) \end{array} \right] 。$ (9)

 ${h_{ij}} = \frac{{\displaystyle\sum\limits_{i = 0}^n {({b_i} - {c_i})} }}{{\displaystyle\sum\limits_{i = 0}^n {({b_i} - {c_i})} - \sum\limits_{i = 0}^n {{a_i} - {d_i}} }} 。$ (10)

 ${X_n}(l) = \sum\limits_{i = 1}^5 {\sum\limits_{j = 1}^5 {{h_{ij}}{U_{ij}}({Z_n},R{F_l})} } 。$ (11)

 ${\boldsymbol{X}} = \left[\begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {Z_1} \\ {Z_2} \\ \vdots \\ {Z_3} \end{array} \right] = \left[ \begin{array}{*{20}{c}} {X_1}(1)& \cdots & {X_1}(L) \\ {X_2}(1)& \cdots & {X_2}(L) \\ {}& \cdots {} \\ {X_N}(1)&\cdots & {X_N}(L) \end{array} \right] 。$ (12)

2 实验分析

 图 1 集装箱运输船舶航行路径 Fig. 1 Navigation route of container transport vessel
2.1 船舶货物运输运营成本计算测试

 图 2 船舶货物运输运营成本计算测试结果 Fig. 2 Calculation and test results of ship cargo transportation operation cost

2.2 运输路径选择测试

 图 3 集装箱船舶航行路径选择结果 Fig. 3 Results of container ship navigation route selection

 图 4 船舶航行节省时间成本数值 Fig. 4 Time saving cost value of ship navigation

3 结　语

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