﻿ 基于变值法的船型优化层次分析法模型研究
 舰船科学技术  2016, Vol. 38 Issue (5): 69-73,78 PDF

1. 广州航海学院 船舶工程学院, 广东 广州 510725 ;
2. 上海交通大学 船舶海洋与建筑工程学院, 上海 200240 ;
3. 广东工业大学 自动化学院, 广东 广州 510006

Research on the analytic hierarchy process model of ship optimization based on variable value method
CHEN Jian-ping1,2, XU Jie3, GONG You1, HUANG Peng-ju1, XU Yan-min1
1. School of Ship Engineering, Guangzhou Maritime Institute, Guangzhou 510725, China ;
2. School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai China 200240, China ;
3. Faculty of Automation, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
Abstract: The paper presents the Analytic Hierarchy Process method of ship hull form technology and economy, and establishes a mathematical model for the economic evaluation of ship hull form by employing the theory of Analytic Hierarchy Process and variable value method. Based on the case study of the ship type of the 3 000 ton bulk cargo ship in the Pearl River main line, the paper obtains the sort of optimization comprehensive evaluation index, and obtains the comprehensive optimal ship form. On this basis, it studies the sensitivity analysis of the parameters effecting on the ship form scheme. The economic evaluation method of Analytic Hierarchy Process proposed has theoretical and practical value for the design and optimization of ship form optimization.
Key words: ship form optimization     analytic hierarchy process     variable value method     sensitivity analysis
0 前言

1 船舶技术和经济性评价

1）初始数据处理。对船舶的类型、营运、造价等方面进行收集调查，对原始数据进行分析，得出船舶技术经济参数的评价过程

2）船舶多方案技术和经济指标计算。根据船舶运营实际情况，确定典型的航线和典型的船舶吨位、船型方案的性能计算。

3）船舶类型评价。首先确定船舶技术综合评价指标，然后根据评价指标，采用多目标综合评价法对船舶技术经济综合评价指标进行综合评价。

4）确定最佳船型。根据船舶综合排序的结果，确定船舶类型和典型船型。

5）敏感性分析。对典型船型的技术经济指标进行敏感性分析。

2 船型优化模型 2.1 层次分析法

2.2 建立模型 2.2.1 构建模型层次

2.2.2 构建判断矩阵

 \left\{ \begin{align} & {{a}_{ij}}>0, \\ & {{a}_{ij}}={}^{1}\!\!\diagup\!\!{}_{{{a}_{ji}}}\;, \\ & {{a}_{ii}}=1. \\ \end{align} \right. (1)
2.2.3 层次单排序及其一致性

 ${{AV}} = {\lambda _{\max }}{{V}}$ (2)

 $\begin{array}{*{35}{l}} {{a}_{ij}}=\frac{{{a}_{ik}}}{{{a}_{jk}}},\left( i=1,2,\cdots ,m;j=1,2,\cdots ,m;k=1,2,\cdots ,m \right). \\ \end{array}$ (3)

2.2.4 层次总排序和一致性检验

 $CR = \frac{{\sum\limits_{j = 1}^m {{a_j}C{I_j}} }}{{\sum\limits_{j = 1}^m {{a_j}R{I_j}} }}.$ (4)

CR＜0.10，即认为总排序结果满足一致性。

3 算例

3.1 船型参数选取

 ${C_B} = \displaystyle\frac{\Delta }{{k \times \rho \times {L_{pp}} \times B \times T}},$

DW=IDWRCW×CW

 $V=\sqrt[3]{\frac{{{C}_{E}}\times {{P}_{E}}}{{{\Delta }^{2/3}}}},$

 $P=0.0884{{\text{e}}^{0.0102{{L}_{pp}}}}{{L}_{pp}}\cdot B\cdot D.$

 $ATC=RIY\times \left( D{{W}_{down-flow}}+D{{W}_{contra-flow}} \right),$

 $PBP=\log \left( A/\left( A-P\times i \right) \right)/\log \left( 1+i \right),$

 $NPV = \left( {B - Y} \right)\left( {P/A,i\% ,n} \right) + \Delta P\left( {P/F,i\% ,n} \right) - P.$

3.2 变值法（网格法）构造船型方案

3.3 计算结果

 图 1 净现值（NPV）分布 Fig. 1 The distribution of NPV

 图 2 投资回收期（PBP）分布 Fig. 2 The distribution of PBP
4 敏感性分析

 图 3 投资回收期（PBP）的敏感性变化曲线 Fig. 3 The sensibility analysis curve of PBP

 图 4 净现值（NPV）的敏感性变化曲线 Fig. 4 The sensibility analysis curve of NPV
5 结语

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