2. 国际植物营养研究所北京办事处,北京 100081
2. International Plant Nutrition Institute Beijing Office, Beijing 100081, China
建国以来我国人口不断增加,到2015年达13.75亿[1],因此需要在有限的耕地上生产越来越多的粮、棉、油、水果、蔬菜及其他农产品以满足人口不断增长的需求。而作物生产离不开植物营养,化肥是作物的粮食。国内外研究表明,化肥施用对粮食增产的贡献为40%~60%[2–3]。1978年到2015年,我国粮食总产从3.1亿t增加到6.57亿t,年均增长率为2.1%,近20年来水果和蔬菜产量年均增长率分别为 6.4%和9.8%,与此同时氮、磷、钾化肥消费量也从880万t增加到6023万t,年均增长率达到5.3%[1]。由此说明,化肥在我国粮食产量增加和保证粮食安全中起着不可替代的支撑作用,可以说没有化肥就没有中国农业的发展,也就不可能有粮食总产十连增。当前我国已成为世界化肥消费大国,消费量占世界化肥消费量的1/3以上,施用上存在一系列不合理现象,如,部分地区作物上施肥过量、化肥利用率低、环境污染风险等。因此,估算当前我国不同区域农业生产中的养分需求和化肥需求,对如何实现化肥零增长和零增长下如何进行养分的科学管理具有重要的意义和参考价值。许多研究者在不同阶段针对农业生产的特点和人口对粮食需求等对我国化肥的需求量进行一系列研究、分析与预测[4–8],对指导我国化肥的生产、分配和施用起到了重要的指导作用,但这些研究数据需要进一步更新与完善。随着种植业结构的改变、高产品种应用、果树蔬菜种植面积不断增加以及经济林、人工草地和水产养殖面积不断扩大等,使得农业生产对养分的需求将会进一步增加并发生很大变化[9–10]。再加上近期中国政府提出全面实现平衡施肥,到2020年实现化肥零增长目标,如何实现这一目标并利用现有肥料资源保持我国农业生产稳步增长,是植物营养学科面临的新任务和挑战。因此,弄清当前农业生产全面实现平衡施肥前提下对养分和化肥的需求,对如何实现化肥零增长目标非常必要。本研究依据统计数据、前期试验研究和文献资料在省级尺度上开展以下研究:1) 当前农业生产(包括农作物、林地、草地、水产养殖)对氮、磷、钾的需求;2) 畜禽粪肥和秸秆养分的有效还田量;3) 化肥需求与消费差异。
1 材料与方法 1.1 养分需求基于农业生产中农作物、林地、草地和水产养殖面积和推荐施肥量计算。农作物种植面积参照2015年国家统计局数据[1];林地面积包括竹林、速生树种和育苗面积[11];草地面积是牧草种植面积,指年末保留种草面积[12];水产养殖面积指淡水养殖,包括池塘、河沟、湖泊和水库养鱼[13]。农作物推荐施肥量基于国际植物营养研究所 (IPNI) 前期多年试验数据和参考文献而得 (表1),林地、草地、水产养殖推荐施肥量依据参考文献的平均施肥量 (表2)。各地区养分 (N、P2O5、K2O) 需求计算如下:
$\begin{split}{\text{养分需求}}\left( {{\text{万}}\;{\rm{t}}} \right)\!\!\! &= \mathop \sum \limits_{{\rm{i}} = 1}^{\rm{n}} \frac{{{\rm{Aci}} \times {\rm{Fci}}}}{{1000}} +\\ &\frac{{\left( {{\rm{Fa}} \times {\rm{Ff}} + {\rm{Ga}} \times {\rm{Gf}} + {\rm{Aqa}} \times {\rm{Aqf}}} \right)}}{{1000}}\end{split}$ |
式中:i表示第i种作物;Aci表示第i作物种植面积 (万hm2);Fci表示第i种作物推荐施肥量 (kg/hm2);Fa、Ga、Aqa分别表示林地、草地和水产养殖面积 (万hm2);Ff、Gf、Aqf分别表示林地、草地和水产养殖推荐施肥量 (kg/hm2)。
化肥消费量按照2015年统计的各省化肥消费量计算[1],氮、磷、钾化肥消费量包括单质化肥和复合肥,其中复合肥部分的氮、磷、钾比例不清楚,需进行估算。本研究中复合肥的氮、磷、钾比例按照《2015全国农产品成本收益资料汇编》[149]中各地区各种作物上磷酸一铵、磷酸二铵、复合 (混) 肥的施用量计算而得 (表3)。
通过畜禽粪肥、人粪尿和秸秆还田的养分量参照我们最近的研究数据[150]。通过人粪尿还田的数量按照每人每年带入农田N 1.0 kg、P2O50.57 kg、K2O 0.30 kg,分别相当于资源量的18.5%、28.1%和15.9%。畜禽粪肥和秸秆还田的养分以有机态养分为主,需经矿化释放出无机态养分才能被作物吸收利用。因此,通过畜禽粪便和秸秆还田的养分对当季作物并不都是有效的,只有当季释放出的养分才能供作物吸收利用。因此,畜禽粪肥和秸秆还田的有效养分量 = 养分还田量×当季养分释放率 (%)。其中,当季养分释放率是参考有关文献资料计算而得的平均释放率 (表4)
肥料差指化肥消费量与化肥需求量之差,计算如下:
肥料差 = 化肥消费量 – 化肥需求量
其中:化肥消费量为2015年国家统计局的化肥消费数据;化肥需求量 = 养分需求量 – 有机肥还田的有效养分量;肥料差为正值,说明化肥投入过量,肥料差为负值,说明化肥投入不足。
2 结果与分析 2.1 养分需求通过作物的播种面积和养分推荐施用量计算出作物对N、P2O5、K2O的需求分别为3746万t、2024万t和2640万t,共约8410万t。其中,粮食作物包括谷类、豆类和薯类的养分需求约占总需求的41.8%,蔬菜/瓜果占20.6%,果树和茶叶占13.1%,油料、纤维和糖料分别占5.1%、2.3%和2.1%,草地约占10.6%,水产养殖占2.2% (表5)。
本研究按照中国粮食主产区划分区域[172]进行分析和讨论 (下同)。不同地区作物不同,因此养分需求也存在差异 (图1)。农作物主要种植区如华北地区和长江中下游地区则需要的养分较多,两个地区养分需求分别占全国总需求的20.3%和23.2%。其次是西北地区和西南地区,分别占18.8%和16.8%,东北地区和东南地区分别占9.8% 和11.1%。山东、河南和四川省对养分的需求高于其他省份。
化肥是农田养分投入的主要来源,2015年全国化肥消费量达6023万t,其中N、P2O5、K2O分别为3001万t、1943万t和1079万t。东北、华北、长江中下游、东南、西南、西北地区的化肥消费量分别占全国化肥消费量的10.6%、27.7%、24.4%、11.5%、11.4%、14.2% (图1)。山东、河南是化肥主要消费省份。华北地区化肥消费占全国的比例高于该区域养分需求占全国的比例,而西南和西北地区化肥消费占全国的比例则低于这两个地区养分需求所占的比例。然而养分投入过量与否不仅取决于化肥投入的多少,还受其他养分来源尤其是有机肥养分投入的影响。
2.3 有机肥养分还田量近期研究表明[150],中国有机肥资源(包括粪肥和农作物秸秆)养分资源潜力为N 3200万t、P2O5 1440万t和K2O 3400万t。这些有机肥养分可替代或补充部分化肥以满足作物对养分的需求,有助于实现2020年化肥零增长目标。当前畜禽粪肥的氮、磷、钾养分还田比例约为32%、57%和52%,秸秆的氮、磷、钾养分还田比例约为34%、49%和50%。然而,这些还田的有机肥养分当季不能全部释放为有效养分供作物吸收利用。由此,按有机肥回田量和当季养分释放率估算出通过畜禽粪肥、秸秆和人粪尿投入的氮、磷、钾有效养分量约为2168万t,包括N 484万t、P2O5 411万t和K2O 1273万t,其中磷主要来源于畜禽粪肥,而钾主要来源于畜禽粪肥和作物秸秆 (表6)。有机肥有效养分还田主要在河北、河南、山东、四川和湖南省,其次是广东、广西、云南,而西北、东北及东南沿海各省通过有机肥还田的有效养分相对较少 (图1)。
通过计算,氮磷钾养分总需求量减去有机肥还田的氮磷钾有效养分量即为所需要的氮磷钾化肥养分量,即为6243万t,包括N 3262万t、P2O5 1613 t和K2O 1367万t。化肥需求量与2015年化肥消费量比较便得出当前化肥消费量与化肥需求量的差值 (表7,图1)。从全国范围来看氮肥和钾肥投入不足,分别亏缺N 261万t和K2O 288万t,而磷肥的投入过量约P2O5 330万t。这些数据是在假设作物、经济林、人工草地和水产养殖全面实现平衡施肥的情况下估算而得。
不同省份化肥供需差具有很大差异,东北地区、华北地区、长江中下游地区或东南地区的一些省份如吉林、河北、河南、山东、安徽、江苏、湖北、广东省的氮、磷、钾肥消费全部过量,需要降低投入量,而西北和西南地区的多数省份的肥料消费不足,需要增加化肥的投入量 (图1)。
由于受土壤、气候、作物种类等多种因素影响,至今尚无可靠、准确的养分需求量估算方法。对农作物养分需求量的估算可根据作物产量和单位产量所需养分吸收量计算,但采用这种方法需要了解土壤肥力参数、作物养分吸收参数和养分利用率等,尤其需要了解作物吸收的养分有多少来源于土壤,多少来源于施肥,至今还没有足够的调查与研究数据可以建立这些参数。因此,采用田间肥效试验法得出的适宜养分推荐量结合种植面积计算养分需求量更实用和可行[5–6] ,可全面了解不同地区、不同作物对养分需求的差异,指导肥料的生产、分配和施用。本研究利用农作物、林地、草地、水产养殖面积和适宜的养分推荐量对农业生产养分需求进行估算,不同作物适宜养分推荐量是基于多年研究数据和相关文献而得的养分平均推荐量。各种作物的试验研究和文献资料基本能反映作物主产区的土壤肥力、作物品种、灌溉条件、气象条件等,所得出的养分推荐量具有代表性。另外,鉴于目前没有各种作物上的施肥面积的比例数据,本研究在国家倡导全面实现平衡施肥前提下,假设各种作物全面平衡施肥基础上进行的估算,代表最高养分需求量,也为实现平衡施肥全面普及下的养分需求提供依据和参考。
3.2 化肥消费量中复合肥的氮、磷、钾估算方法自1980年以来,氮磷钾化肥消费量迅速增加,由1980年的1285万t增加到2015年的6023万t,增加近3.7倍,而其中复合肥所占的比例由1980年的2.1%增加到2015年36.1%,增加了16倍多。统计数据中复合肥的氮、磷、钾养分比例一直不明确,因此,准确估算复合肥中的氮、磷、钾比例和数量对全面了解不同地区化肥的供给与需求十分重要。李家康等[5]曾按照进口和国产复合肥如一铵、二铵的实际养分量计算,复合 (混) 肥中的N、P2O5、K2O按1∶0.8∶0.8比计算。李书田和金继运[172]计算消费量中复合肥的N、P2O5、K2O是按照东北地区1∶2.0∶2.0,华北、西北地区1∶1.5∶0.4,长江中下游、西南、东南各省1∶1∶0.8计算。本研究根据发改委2015年的《全国农产品成本收益资料汇编》[149]中不同省份每种作物上一铵、二铵、三元素复合肥、混配肥的施用量以及各自的养分含量估算各省通过复合肥施用的氮、磷、钾用量和比例 (表3),其中三元复合 (混) 肥的N、P2O5、K2O按1∶1∶1计算。按照这种方法计算的复合肥氮、磷、钾养分加上单质氮、磷、钾肥消费量,全国N、P2O5、K2O总消费量分别为3001万t、1943万t和1079万t,与利用2015年各种复合肥资源量 (即国产 + 进口 – 出口)[173]中N、P2O5、K2O比例1∶1.70∶0.73计算后得出的全国N、P2O5、K2O总消费量2996万t、1921万t和1105万t相比基本一致,但有些省份两种计算方法的氮、磷、钾消费量有一定差异,可能与按资源量中复合肥氮磷钾比例计算时各省使用同一比例有关。因此,本研究根据各省复合肥的实际施用情况估算氮、磷、钾比例更能反映各省的实际情况。
3.3 有机肥在化肥零增长中的地位我国有机肥资源可提供8000多万t的氮磷钾养分,是作物营养的主要来源之一,科学施用有机肥不仅为植物提供养分,还能培肥土壤、增加土壤肥力。畜禽粪肥和作物秸秆是有机肥资源的主要组成部分,目前只有1/3左右的氮和50%左右的磷、钾能有效还田[150],其余养分尤其是氮素有相当部分在收集、处理和保存中损失或废弃,并对环境造成一定污染。因此,充分利用有机肥资源,减少养分损失,增加有效还田比例,是实现2020年化肥零增长目标的可靠保障。从前面分析可知,在全面平衡施肥情况下目前还分别有261万t化肥氮和 288万t化肥K2O投入不足,有机肥替代就是很好的补充方法。根据1980~2015年每5年化肥消费年均增长率变化趋势分析 (图2),2015~2020化肥消费年均增长率不会超过2010~2015的年均增长率1.6%,按照这一增长率,到2020年化肥消费量将不会超过6520万t,比2015年增加约500万t。增加有机肥的养分投入就可降低化肥消费增长率,降低2020年化肥消费峰值。
当然,有机肥不是施用越多越好,有机肥尤其畜禽粪肥中含有有害物质如重金属等,存在造成土壤和作物产品某些重金属超标的风险[174–177]。至于施用多少有机肥合适需要综合考虑有机肥种类、重金属含量、土壤酸碱度和重金属本底值以及作物种类等,有待深入研究制定有机肥施用限量标准。但值得强调的是,用有机肥养分替代化肥养分需要考虑有机肥当季可供作物吸收的部分,不是简单的总量替代,否则可能导致养分供应不足,影响作物产量。
粮食作物是养分需求的主体,其次是蔬菜和果树。在农作物、林地、草地、水产养殖全面实现平衡施肥情况下,目前氮、钾肥投入不足,磷肥投入过量。不同省份和区域养分需求、化肥消费量、有机肥还田的有效养分以及化肥消费与化肥需求差都存在着明显差异。东北、华北、长江中下游和东南沿海地区一些省份需适当减少肥料投入,而西北和西南地区多数省份可依据养分需求适量增加肥料投入。因此,要根据养分和肥料需求的地区差异,合理分配肥料资源,提高肥料利用效率。
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