中国媒介生物学及控制杂志  2020, Vol. 31 Issue (3): 358-361

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田建国, 黎桂福, 李俊, 韩荣荣, 彭丽霞
TIAN Jian-guo, LI Gui-fu, LI Jun, HAN Rong-rong, PENG Li-xia
水网地区有螺泥土中钉螺聚集趋势及负二项分布拟合优度的研究
Aggregation tendency and goodness of fit to negative binomial distribution of Oncomelania hupensis in the snail-obtainable soil of a waterway network
中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2020, 31(3): 358-361
Chin J Vector Biol & Control, 2020, 31(3): 358-361
10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2020.03.023

文章历史

收稿日期: 2019-12-21
水网地区有螺泥土中钉螺聚集趋势及负二项分布拟合优度的研究
田建国1 , 黎桂福1 , 李俊1 , 韩荣荣1 , 彭丽霞2     
1 上海市青浦区疾病预防控制中心综合业务科, 上海 201700;
2 湖南省中医药研究院附属医院, 湖南 长沙 410006
摘要: 目的 研究水网地区有螺泥土中钉螺分布规律,为查螺、灭螺提供理论指导。方法 采用系统抽样结合环境抽查法,2016年5月在上海市青浦区练塘镇星浜村有螺地区的3个地块中分别采集土壤样本20块,捡取计数泥土表面钉螺后,每块土壤分别抽取3份(每份500.0 g)样品,采用双层箩筛水洗获得钉螺并进行计数。采用Kolmogorov-Smirnov D检验进行土壤中钉螺的正态分布检验;采用集中趋势统计指标对泥土中钉螺分布情况进行统计学描述和分析;采用非参数Wilcoxon秩和检验对3个地块泥土中钉螺均数进行检验;采用负二项拟合优度检验钉螺是否服从负二项分布。结果 在星浜村的朱家埭河、青松港及断头浜3个地区共采集60份样品,经清洗获得泥土中钉螺成螺。正态性检验显示,钉螺分布不符合正态分布(偏度系数=1.03,峰度系数=0.71,D=0.167,P < 0.001);非参数Wilcoxon秩和检验3个地块泥土中钉螺数差异无统计学意义(Z=0.405,P=0.815);每个地块泥土中钉螺的均数>中位数,峰度系数和偏度系数偏离0,钉螺分布属正偏态分布;方差>均数,属聚集性分布;负二项分布拟合优度检验服从负二项分布(χ2=1.844,P=0.765)。结论 有螺地区土壤中钉螺与泥土表面钉螺的分布一致,属聚集性、正偏态分布,服从负二项分布。
关键词: 钉螺    聚集趋势    负二项分布    拟合优度    
Aggregation tendency and goodness of fit to negative binomial distribution of Oncomelania hupensis in the snail-obtainable soil of a waterway network
TIAN Jian-guo1 , LI Gui-fu1 , LI Jun1 , HAN Rong-rong1 , PENG Li-xia2     
1 Qingpu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 201700, China;
2 The Attached Hospital of Chinese Medicine Institute of Hunan Province
Abstract: Objective To investigate the distribution of Oncomelania hupensis in the snail-obtainable soil of a waterway network, and the theoretical guide to finding and killing snails was provided. Methods Twenty soil samples were taken using systematic sampling and environmental sampling methods from three plots of snail-obtainable regions within Xingbang village, Liantang town, Qingpu district, Shanghai, China, in May 2016. Oncomelania hupensis snails on the surface of the soil were picked up and counted; then three pieces of specimens (500.0 g per piece) were taken from each soil sample, and the snails in the soil specimens were collected for counting after being washed with a double-layer sieve. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov D test was used to perform normal distribution analysis for the snails in the soil. Statistical parameters of aggregation tendency were used to describe the snail distribution. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used to compare the mean number of the snails among the three plots. The goodness-of-fit test was used to determine whether the snail counts follow a negative binomial distribution. Results Sixty pieces of soil specimens were taken from three plots of Zhujiadai River, Qingsonggang, and Duantoubang in Xingbang village, and they were washed for collecting adult snails in the soil. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov D test showed that the numbers of the snails were not consistent with normal distribution (skewness coefficient=1.03, kurtosis coefficient=0.71, D=0.167, P < 0.001). The Wilcoxon rank-sum test showed no significant difference in the snail count between the three plots (Z=0.405, P=0.815). The mean of the snail counts was greater than the median in each plot, and the kurtosis and skewness coefficients both deviated from 0, indicating that the snail counts followed a positively skewed distribution. The variance was greater than the mean, representing an aggregation distribution; the goodness-of-fit test showed that the snail counts fitted a negative binomial distribution (χ2=1.844, P=0.765). Conclusion The distribution of O. hupensis in the soil is consistent with that on the soil of the snail-obtainable regions, which is clustered and positively skewed, following a negative binomial distribution rather than a normal distribution.
Key words: Oncomelania hupensis    Aggregation tendency    Negative binomial distribution    Degree of fitting    

钉螺(Oncomelania hupensis)在土壤中属离散性分布, 一般认为这种离散型属于二项分布[1-3]。既往的研究注重泥土表面的钉螺分布[3], 由于在自然环境中钉螺在泥土表面和泥土中活动是一个动态过程, 而泥土中钉螺呈何种分布研究较少, 对水网地区泥土中钉螺分布也鲜有报道。了解钉螺的分布规律有利于对钉螺种、株特征以及生物学理论的研究[4], 可以准确了解水网地区自然环境中螺情形成规律及变化规律, 从而为查螺、灭螺提供理论指导。

1 材料与方法 1.1 有螺水网地区土壤样本的采集及钉螺计数

选择上海市青浦区练塘镇星浜村朱家埭河、青松港及断头浜新发现的有螺区作为样本采集点。采用系统抽样结合环境抽查法(双重查螺法)[3], 分别采集土壤20块, 每块土壤取土体积为330 cm×330 cm×7 cm。计数泥土表面钉螺。

1.2 仪器

电子天平(型号:JJ1000, 江苏省常熟市双杰测试仪器厂); 自制土壤采样器, 体积为330 cm×330 cm×7 cm。

1.3 方法

从采集的20块土壤样品中, 每块称取3份(每份500.0 g)样品, 共计60份样品, 采用双层箩筛水洗法对泥土样品中钉螺进行计数。

1.4 统计学分析

数据采用Excel 2007软件汇总, 采用SAS 8.1软件进行统计分析。正态性检验采用Kolmogorov-Smirnov D检验; 采用均数、方差、峰度系数和偏度系数等对泥土中钉螺情况进行统计学描述; 3个地点泥土中钉螺数量比较采用非参数Wilcoxon秩和检验; 采用负二项分布对泥土中钉螺分布情况进行拟合优度检验。P < 0.05为差异有统计学意义。

2 结果 2.1 正态性检验

此次检测的60份泥土中钉螺分布不符合正态分布(偏度系数=1.03, 峰度系数=0.71, D=0.167, P < 0.001)。

2.2 集中趋势检验

从星浜村3个地区20块土壤样本情况看, 泥土中钉螺的均数>中位数, 峰度系数和偏度系数偏离0, 分布属正偏态分布; 方差>均数, 属聚集性分布, 见表 1。从3个地块的钉螺频数分布可以看出, 泥土中钉螺的分布呈正偏态分布, 结果见图 1~3

表 1 水网地区有螺泥土中的钉螺数 Table 1 The number of Oncomelania hupensis in the snail-obtainable soil of a waterway network
图 1 上海市朱家埭河钉螺频数分布 Figure 1 The frequency distribution of Oncomelania hupensis in Zhujiadai river, Shanghai
图 2 上海市青松港钉螺频数分布 Figure 2 The frequency distribution of Oncomelania hupensis in Qingsonggang, Shanghai
图 3 上海市断头浜钉螺频数分布 Figure 3 The frequency distribution of Oncomelania hupensis in Duantoubang, Shanghai
2.3 样品泥土中的钉螺数

非参数Wilcoxon秩和检验结果显示, 3个地区泥土中钉螺数差异无统计学意义(Z=0.405, P=0.815), 见表 2

表 2 水网地区有螺泥土不同地块中的钉螺数 Table 2 The numbers of Oncomelania hupensis in the snail-obtainable soil of different plots of a waterway network
2.4 负二项分布的拟合优度检验

经负二项分布的拟合优度检验, χ2=1.844, P=0.765, 水网地区有螺泥土中钉螺服从负二项分布, 见表 3

表 3 水网地区有螺泥土中钉螺负二项分布的拟合优度检验结果 Table 3 Goodness-of-fit to negative binomial distribution for Oncomelania hupensis in the snail-obtainable soil of a waterway network
3 讨论

钉螺在泥土表面服从负二项分布已经得到证实[1-3], 但钉螺在泥土中分布服从何种分布报道较少。本研究对抽取样本的泥土中钉螺聚集趋势及负二项分布拟合优度进行研究, 结果显示, 泥土中钉螺属聚集性、正偏态分布。抽取的3个地区泥土单位重量中钉螺均数差异无统计学意义[5], 泥土中钉螺也服从负二项分布。

钉螺在自然界中的繁殖分布受到多种因素影响, 包括温度、湿度、土壤、植被、地貌、水文、水流动力等。其中水是钉螺繁殖生存的必需要素, 所有钉螺都是沿水系分布。有研究认为土壤含水量28%~38%最适合于钉螺生长[6-11], 我们既往的研究发现钉螺的活动与气象因素有关, 如温度和阴晴状况会影响到钉螺的活动, 不同的季节钉螺会出现冬眠、夏蛰等现象, 雨后钉螺会表现出迁徙、爬高等活动能力[12-13], 上述各种因素导致钉螺在泥土中和泥土表面形成一个动态的活动过程。综上所述, 钉螺在一个地区的生长、繁殖受环境等诸多因素的影响, 因此不表现出随机和均匀分布, 而表现出聚集性负二项分布[14], 但也有研究认为, 受不同月份和环境变化影响, 钉螺会出现不符合负二项分布的情况[15]

本次研究认为泥土中钉螺与泥土表面钉螺一样均属聚集性、离散型分布, 服从负二项分布, 这与环境因素影响和钉螺的生存习性有关, 表现出钉螺在泥土表面和泥土内活动呈现一个动态的过程。谢法仙等[14]研究认为, 一个地区的钉螺经过较长时间稳定的生存, 形成高密度核心分布时, 才会符合负二项分布。我们认为这一论点支持负二项分布拟合优度检验, 可用于螺点形成的时间和规律判定, 通过一个地区中钉螺在泥土中的分布规律负二项分布检验, 可以推断螺点是新生螺点还是陈旧性螺点, 从而为既往的查螺效果和查螺效果质控及灭螺后的效果跟踪判定提供较为科学的判定依据。

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