2015, Vol.35
通过地质历史时期气候变化研究来进行未来气候变化的相似型分析，是目前预估未来气候变化的有效手段。大暖期（6ka B.P.）为距今最近的一个暖期，6ka B.P.时期对未来全球增温的气候情景预估具有重要参考意义[1]。湖泊作为陆地生态系统的重要地理单元，对区域气候变化反映敏感，是揭示不同时间尺度下气候变化和人类活动信息的有效指示器[2, 3]。大暖期古湖泊尤其是寒区及干旱区古湖泊面积变化的研究，可以尽可能准确地了解当时的地表状况，也可作为验证古气候模型模拟准确与否的有效工具[4, 5, 6, 7]，还可为未来类似增温幅度下湖泊演化提供一定的自然背景。
中国湖泊数量众多、分布广泛，特别是分别代表我国寒区及干旱区的青藏和蒙新两大湖区，其对应的湖泊面积分别为41831.7km2和12589.9km2，分别占全国湖泊总面积的51.4％和15.5％[8]，是我国湖泊分布的重点区域。另外，该区域多内陆封闭湖泊，人类活动对湖泊影响相对较弱，因此这两大湖区湖泊对气候变化的响应较其他地域灵敏，湖泊面积变化更能较好的反映该区气候条件和自然环境变化的信息。
目前国内外对大暖期青藏高原及蒙新湖区湖泊水位波动及降水、温度格局的重建相对较多[9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34]，但关于大暖期古湖泊面积的重建，仅限于少数基于古湖泊阶地恢复的古湖泊面积数据[4, 7]，迄今尚未有全国或区域性的大暖期古湖泊面积重建资料。本文在已知青藏及蒙新两大湖区现代湖泊面积的基础上，根据现有的大暖期两大湖区古湖泊面积资料，结合大暖期大量定量降水重建成果，尝试对中国青藏及蒙新湖区大暖期古湖泊面积进行定量重建，以期为大暖期青藏及蒙新湖区古气候模拟提供重要的边界条件，同时为未来变暖情景下两大湖区湖泊面积变化提供一定的历史参考和科学依据。
1 资料与方法
1.1 数据来源
文中关于大暖期的研究时段为5.5~6.5ka B.P.（对应日历年为6.3~7.4cal.ka B.P.），即全新世暖期的鼎盛阶段[12]。所用的青藏及蒙新湖区古湖泊大暖期的降水、面积及水位记录资料主要来源于中国晚第四纪古湖泊水位数据库（CLSDB）[35]，同时收集整理近年来国内外主要学术期刊已公开发表的文献书籍[4, 7, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47]。两大湖区湖泊现代水位、降水数据主要源于中国湖泊志、地方志、统计年鉴及“中国气象科学数据共享服务网”等（参考文献略），现代湖泊面积主要源于“湖泊-流域科学数据共享平台（http://lake.data.ac.cn/）”。通过对不同来源不同指标的数据资料的对比，尽量保证资料的全面性及准确性。本研究从两大湖区中收集整理到21条含大暖期的定量古湖泊面积-古降水记录。需要说明的是，由于大暖期青藏及蒙新湖区湖泊数量无从得知，因此，本文暂假定除了文献中有记载的大暖期时存在而现在已经干涸或消亡的湖泊（如罗布泊）外，其他现今存在的湖泊，在大暖期时也同样存在。
1.2 研究方法 1.2.1 大暖期古湖泊面积重建方法
对于封闭湖泊而言，降水往往是控制湖泊水量平衡变化（即水位）最主要的气候参数，而温度、云量以及蒸发的影响则相对较弱[48, 49]，尤其是在受人类活动影响极其微弱的大暖期，这种作用更加明显。因此，根据现已有的古湖泊面积及古降水记录资料，探寻大暖期古湖泊面积和古降水之间的关系，即可在大暖期古湖泊（流域）其他气象资料缺失的情况下，根据该关系初步估算两大湖区湖泊相应降水所对应的古湖泊面积。
大暖期古湖泊面积与古降水之间关系的建立主要是利用SPSS 19.0的曲线估计功能。SPSS曲线估计中，首先，在不能明确究竟哪种模型更接近样本数据时可在上述多种可选择的模型中选择几种模型; 然后，SPSS自动完成模型的参数估计，并输出回归方程显著性检验的F值、P值和判定系数R2等统计量; 最后，以判定系数为主要依据选择其中的最优模型，并进行预测分析等。对于本文而言，首先分析大暖期湖泊面积及降水与现代湖泊面积及降水间是线性或非线性关系，确定函数类型，然后采用回归分析的方法建立两者之间的函数关系。函数推导能力的评估主要依据推导误差（Root-Mean-Square Error of Prediction，简称RMSEP）以及推导值与实测值之间的决定系数（Adjusted Coefficients of Determination，简称R2）等统计量。这两个统计量可以很好地用来衡量模型的总体有效性。上述统计量主要通过“刀割法（jackknifing）”来计算。“刀割法”是采用重新取样的方法，用每次去一个样品的方法重新建立独立的数据库，对所建函数进行检验[50]。这种检验方法提供了相对客观的检验结果，目前在转换函数重建中已被广泛接受和使用[51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57]。最终，具有最小推导误差的函数可以作为最佳的函数模型。
1.2.2 重建结果的检验
通常最有效最直接的验证方法就是用湖泊面积长期监测数据与推导值进行对比。在此，我们分别选取了西藏及蒙新地区具有近几十年湖泊面积及降水数据的羊卓雍错[58, 59, 60, 61]及乌梁素海[62, 63, 64, 65]（部分数据由国家气候中心提供），将该湖泊近几十年来有记载的实际观测面积和根据上述函数关系推算的面积进行比较，从而进一步验证所建函数的推导能力。
2 大暖期青藏及蒙新湖区古湖泊面积的重建
2.1 根据古湖泊面积-古降水关系重建的古湖泊面积
表 1所示是从文献中收集到的含有大暖期湖泊面积及降水记录的21个青藏及蒙新湖区的湖泊点，根据这些探寻古湖泊面积和古降水量之间的定量关系，其中三次函数关系显示了最高的相关性而成为最佳建模方法（图 1）。根据该函数关系推导的古湖泊面积值与实际值在坐标轴上较好地沿着1∶1对角线的排列（图 2），也显示了它们有较强的推导能力。因而可在其他湖泊及环境参数未知的情况下，利用上述函数关系粗略估算大暖期两大湖区所有古湖泊面积。
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表 1 已有大暖期古湖泊面积和湖区降水记录的湖泊点 Tab.1 List of lake area and precipitation during the Holocene Megathermal |
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图 1
大暖期湖泊面积/降水与现代湖泊面积/降水关系 班公错、青海湖和察尔汗盐湖3个异常偏离点未参与回归 Fig. 1 The relationship of the lake area/precipitation in the Holocene Megathermal vs. the present. Qinghai Lake, Bangong Co Lake and Chaerhan Lake were excluded from the regression |
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图 2
大暖期古湖泊面积重建函数的推导能力评估 实线为散点图理想状态下的拟合线，虚线为散点图实际拟合线 Fig. 2 Prediction ability of the reconstruction model on reconstructing the Holocene Megathermal lake area. The solid line represents the ideal regression trend while the dash line represents the actual regression trend |
在利用古湖泊面积和古降水之间关系重建古湖泊面积时，大暖期及现代降水量的恢复是关键。目前有关单点或局部区域的全新世干湿或定量-半定量降水序列重建较多[66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94]，但关于全国的大暖期降水格局重建仅见方修琦等[13]采用空间集成重建的方法，对中国285个地点的357条全新世暖期原始降水量记录进行重复记录归并和空间集成分析后重建的大暖期降水格局。在我国降水总体分布规律[95]的基础上，根据方修琦等[13]采用的青藏及蒙新地区大暖期有效年降水记录，即可重建青藏及蒙新湖区大暖期降水等值线分布图（ 图 3），然后从 图 3中读取相应湖泊点的降水量值，并通过其他单点或区域降水资料的对比验证，初步重建大暖期两大湖区湖泊古降水状况。
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图 3
我国青藏(a)及蒙新(b)湖泊大暖期年降水量分布 图中数字为年降水量(mm)，根据方修琦等[13]推算而来 Fig. 3 Isohyet of mean annual precipitation in the Tibet Plateau (a) and Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Region (b) in the Holocene Megathermal modified from Fang et al.[13] Data in the map represent the annual precipitation(mm) |
此外，侯光良等[14]曾以孢粉为环境证据，通过选取空间上有代表性的10条由孢粉重建的降水序列，构建了分区古降水空间模拟-多区面积加权的集成方法，建立了青藏高原全新世古降水记录数据集。本文在重建青藏高原湖区大暖期降水时，考虑到该湖区湖泊众多，仅利用大暖期等降水量线并不能完全恢复所有湖泊点的大暖期降水值，因此文中还利用了侯光良等[14]对青藏高原大暖期降水序列的集成重建结果对本文重建的数据进行补充对比（ 图 4），确保尽可能细致地还原大暖期青藏高原湖泊降水量。
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图 4
青藏高原湖区大暖期湖泊的分区 根据侯光良等[14]修改 Fig. 4 Divisions of the Tibet Plateau in the Holocene Megathermal, modified from Hou et al.[14] |
对于湖泊现代降水量来说，大部分青藏、蒙新湖区湖泊的现代降水数据可从已发表文献、中国湖泊志及其他地方志中直接获取。对于两大湖区中无法直接查出现代降水数据的湖泊点，本文采用方修琦等[13]重建大暖期降水时所用的方法，根据已有湖泊的现代降水数据绘制湖泊现代降水等值线分布图（ 图 5），从 图 5中近似读取未知现代降水值的湖泊点降水数据。
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图 5
我国青藏(a)及蒙新(b)湖泊现代年降水量分布 图中数字为年降水量(mm)，根据已有现代降水量数据（参考文献略）推算而来 Fig. 5 Isohyet of mean annual precipitation in the Tibet Plateau (a) and Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Region (b) at present according to given data of precipitation from related lakes. Data in the map represent the annual precipitation(mm) |
2.2 重建古湖泊面积的验证
羊卓雍错1972~2010年（不连续）及乌梁素海1960~2010年（不连续）间的实测面积与推算面积对比见 图 6。从 图 6中可以看出，根据函数关系重建的羊卓雍错及乌梁素海各年份湖泊面积值与实际面积值基本接近，但重建值与实际值仍存在一定误差，而且误差绝对值在不同年份存在一定差异。羊卓雍错相对误差变化范围在0.77％~54.59％之间，最大误差出现在2008年，最小误差出现在1989年；乌梁素海相对误差变化范围在0.80％~70.25％之间，最大误差出现在1977年，最小误差出现在1961年。在羊卓雍错20年重建值与实际值的比较中，误差小于10％的个数为9个，占所有年份的45％；误差在10％~20％之间的个数为4个，占所有年份的20％；误差在20％~30％之间的个数为5个，占所有年份的25％；误差大于30％的个数为2个，占所有年份的10％。在乌梁素海30年重建值与实际值的比较中，误差小于10％的个数为12个，占所有年份的40％；误差在10％~20％之间的个数为8个，占所有年份的26.7％；误差在20％~30％之间的个数为4个，占所有年份的13.3％；误差大于30％的个数为6个，占所有年份的20％。值得注意的是，随着近几十年来人类活动对湖泊影响的加剧，比如乌梁素海中农田退水对湖泊面积的影响，湖区降水量对湖泊面积变化的主控作用可能会弱化，因此将上述降水-古湖泊面积关系应用到现代时还是应慎重。
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图 6 羊卓雍错(a)及乌梁素海(b)实际面积与推算面积对比 Fig. 6 Comparison of observed and computed lake area of Yamdrok Lake (a) and Wuliangsuhai Lake(b) |
2.3 重建结果
根据前述，古湖泊面积-古降水之间函数关系重建的大暖期青藏高原及蒙新湖区古湖泊面积见 图 7。重建结果表明: 大暖期青藏及蒙新湖区古湖泊面积总计约为1.2×105km2，比现在全国所有湖泊面积之和（81414.6km2）[8]还要高。其中，青藏高原湖区大暖期古湖泊面积约为8.8×104km2，约是现在湖泊面积的2.1倍，大于10km2的湖泊649个，合计面积约为8.6×104km2；蒙新湖区大暖期古湖泊面积约为2.9×104km2，比现在的湖泊面积高出1.6×104km2，大于10km2的湖泊228个，合计面积约为2.7×104km2。此外，如果将蒙新湖区大暖期时尚存在的民勤三角城古湖泊（大暖期古湖泊面积约为2130km2[96]）以及古罗布泊（全新世中期古湖泊面积约为10000km2[97, 98]）的面积计算在内，蒙新湖区大暖期古湖泊面积可达4.1×104km2，约是现代湖泊面积的3.2倍。
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图 7 青藏(a)及蒙新(b)湖区不同级别湖泊的面积和数量对比 Fig. 7 Comparison of the number and area of different lake sizes between the Holocene Megathermal and the present in the Tibet Plateau (a) and Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Region(b) |
从湖泊面积变化来看，青藏高原湖区面积>100km2的湖泊大暖期面积较现在增幅较大，而<100km2的湖泊面积增幅相对较小，特别是面积在10km2以下的湖泊大暖期和现在面积变化不明显。相比较而言，蒙新湖区不同等级湖泊大暖期较现在的面积增加幅度总体上要比青藏高原湖区大，但10km2以下的湖泊面积同样在大暖期和现在变化不大。从湖泊数量变化来看，青藏高原湖区面积在1~10km2、10~50km2、50~100km2、100~500km2、500~1000km2以及>1000km2的湖泊分别有413个、356个、93个、164个、24个和12个；蒙新湖区相应等级面积的湖泊数量分别为292个、153个、32个、31个、8个和4个；与现在同级别面积的湖泊数量相比，两大湖区除10km2以下湖泊数目减少外，其余级别均呈增加趋势。此外，虽然小湖在数量上仍占绝对优势，但无论从大暖期还是现代来看，湖泊数量和面积之间并非一种正比关系。
鉴于文中并未考虑那些现在湖泊面积小于1km2，但大暖期时湖泊面积可能大于1km2的湖泊，也未将其余一部分大暖期时存在但面积未知的古湖泊考虑在内，本文重建的大暖期两大湖区古湖泊面积可能较真实值偏低。但另一方面，文中所采用的现在存在的湖泊在大暖期时也可能并未成形，这样就会造成大暖期古湖泊面积值的高估。究竟两者能否抵消或者差值多大，仍有待进一步的研究。此外，对于青藏高原及新疆部分受冰川融水补给的湖泊而言，降水可能并非是影响湖泊变化的单一要素，由于大暖期升温而引起的冰川融水增加、冻土隔水层融化及流域蒸发加强等均可能对湖泊水文状况产生一定影响，从而限制了文中利用降水-面积间关系估算该湖区大暖期古湖泊面积的精度。再者，尽管目前关于青藏及蒙新湖区碳库效应的研究较多[99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110]，但由于本文所引资料中给出的大暖期年代几乎均未考虑碳库效应的影响，加之不同区域、不同湖泊，甚至同一湖泊的不同地点间碳库效应差距较大，因此文中并未对所研究湖泊的碳库效应做统一校正。鉴于此，大暖期古湖泊面积的研究仍有待今后进一步的深入。
3 结论
本文主要以中国晚第四纪古湖泊数据库及已公开发表的各类文献为基础，综合集成分别代表我国干旱区的青藏、蒙新湖区具有全新世大暖期湖泊面积及湖区降水量的典型湖泊点记录，根据两大湖区古湖泊面积和古降水量之间的关系，初步重建了大暖期两大湖区所有湖泊的面积。
研究结果表明: 青藏高原湖区大暖期古湖泊面积约为8.8×104km2，约是现在湖泊面积的2.1倍，其中面积在1~10km2的413个、10~50km2的356个、50~100km2的93个、100~500km2的164个、500~1000km2的24个、大于1000km2的12个；蒙新湖区大暖期古湖泊面积约为4.1×104km2，约是现在湖泊面积的3.2倍，其中面积在1~10km2的292个、10~50km2的153个、50~100km2的32个、100~500km2的31个、500~1000km2的8个、大于1000km2的4个。
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Abstract
Fluctuations of the ancient lake area can provide information of precipitation and humidity at a given period. It is an important way to assess and validate the palaeoclimate models as well as predict the future. In this paper, 21 lakes with lake area and precipitation records in the Tibet Plateau and Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang region during the Holocene Megathermal(6±0.5ka B.P.) were collected from published books and papers. Combined with modern lake area and precipitation records of the 21 lakes, the relationship of lake area/precipitation between the Holocene Megathermal and the present was quantified by SPSS 19.0. Then this relationship was applied to reconstruct lake areas of other lakes in these two lake regions during the Holocene Megathermal. In addition, Yamdrok Lake and Wuliangsuhai Lake which are located in these two regions were assigned to validate the reliability of the reconstructed model. The relatively small errors between the predicted lake areas and the observed data during the past several decades suggested that the reconstructed model was reliable. The results showed that the total lake areas of the Tibet Plateau and Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Region were ca.8.8×104km2 and 4.1×104km2 during the Holocene Megathermal respectively, approximately 2.1 and 3.2 times larger than today.