﻿ 太原盆地隐伏断裂潜在最大震级及地震危险性
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 大地测量与地球动力学  2024, Vol. 44 Issue (2): 160-165  DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2023.04.182

### 引用本文

ZHANG Longfei. Seismic Risk and Maximum Magnitudes of Potential Earthquakes for Hidden Faults in Taiyuan Basin[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2024, 44(2): 160-165.

### Foundation support

Science and Technology Youth Fund of Shanxi Province, No.201701D221019, 201901D211550; Scientific Research Project of Shanxi Earthquake Agency, No.SBK1925, SBK2027.

### 作者简介

ZHANG Longfei, senior engineer, majors in earthquake engineering, seismic geology and risk zoning, E-mail: 89267561@qq.com.

### 文章历史

1. 山西省震灾风险防治中心，太原市水西关南街2号，030002;
2. 太原大陆裂谷动力学国家野外科学观测研究站，太原市晋祠镇，030025

1 太原盆地中小地震精定位

 图 1 精定位后的太原盆地地震分布 Fig. 1 Earthquake distribution map of Taiyuanbasin after precise locating
2 太原盆地潜在地震最大震级评价 2.1 华北经验模型适用性分析

2.2 太原盆地断层小区建立

2.3 太原盆地断层小区划分结果

 图 2 太原盆地地震活动与断层小区分布 Fig. 2 Distribution of earthquakes and fault sub-areas in Taiyuan basin

 $\begin{gathered} M_u=0.220\;7\left(\frac{a_t}{b}\right)^2-0.936\;7\left(\frac{a_t}{b}\right)+4.449\;4 \\ (n=8, R=0.9919, \sigma=0.345, \\ \left.4.0 \leqslant a_t / b \leqslant 6.6\right) \end{gathered}$ (1)
 图 3 田庄断层小区的G-R关系回归分析 Fig. 3 Regression analysis of G-R relationship for Tianzhuang fault sub-areas

 图 4 按500 a归算的at/b参数与Mu经验关系 Fig. 4 The empirical relationship between at/b and Mu of fault sub-areas based on 500 a

3 发震概率预测分析

4 结语

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Seismic Risk and Maximum Magnitudes of Potential Earthquakes for Hidden Faults in Taiyuan Basin
ZHANG Longfei1,2
1. Earthquake Risk Prevention and Control Center of Shanxi Province, 2 South-Shuixiguan Street, Taiyuan 030002, China;
2. National Continental Rift Valley Dynamics Observatory of Taiyuan, Jinci Town, Taiyuan 030025, China
Abstract: We use the double difference method to accurately locate small and medium-sized earthquakes in the Taiyuan Basin and establish the sub-area of hidden faults in Taiyuan basin. By using the magnitude frequency relationship model reduced by a certain time scale, we fit the empirical evaluation model between the maximum earthquake magnitude Mmax of the hidden fault in Taiyuan basin and the magnitude frequency relationship at/b parameter. After comprehensive analysis, we give the upper limit prediction value of potential magnitude of each active fault zone. To predict the probability of occurrence of potential maximum earthquake magnitudes and moderate-strong earthquake magnitudes for each hidden active fault, we use the Poisson probability model. The results indicate that the Tianzhuang-Wenshui-Fenyang fault area in the central and western parts of the basin, as well as the Sanjia-Hongshan-Pingyao fault area in the southeastern part of the basin, have a higher probability of future earthquakes with MS≥6.5, while the probability level of earthquakes with MS≥6.0 occurring in the future in the Qizishan and Beitian-Wanghu fault areas, mainly composed of NW trending hidden active faults, is relatively low.
Key words: Taiyuan basin; precise seismic location; hidden active faults; fault sub-area; potential maximum magnitude; earthquake probability