﻿ 川滇地区主要活动断裂运动特征及地震危险性分析
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 大地测量与地球动力学  2021, Vol. 41 Issue (6): 561-567  DOI: 10.14075/j.jgg.2021.06.002

### 引用本文

TIAN Xiao, ZHENG Hongyan, LI Layue, et al. Analysis of Movement Characteristics and Seismic Hazard of Main Active Faults of Sichuan-Yunnan Region[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2021, 41(6): 561-567.

### Foundation support

Combination Project with Monitoring, Prediction and Scientific Research of Earthquake Technology, CEA, No.3JH-201901090; Seismic Regime Tracking Project of CEA, No.2019010227.

### About the first author

TIAN Xiao, engineer, majors in crustal deformation monitoring and data processing, E-mail: tx_yice@163.com.

### 文章历史

1. 中国地震局第一监测中心，天津市耐火路7号，300180

1 数据和处理方法

 图 1 川滇地区跨断层场地分布 Fig. 1 Distribution of fault-crossing sites in Sichuan-Yunnan region
1.1 断层运动参数计算

 $\left\{\begin{array}{l} \Delta S=\frac{\sin \alpha_{2} \Delta L_{1}-\sin \alpha_{1} \Delta L_{2}}{\sin \left(\alpha_{2}-\alpha_{1}\right)} \\ \Delta D=\frac{\cos \alpha_{1} \Delta L_{2}-\cos \alpha_{2} \Delta L_{1}}{\sin \left(\alpha_{2}-\alpha_{1}\right)} \\ \Delta H=\frac{1}{2}\left(\Delta H_{1}+\Delta H_{2}\right) \end{array}\right.$ (1)

1.2 改进的灰色关联度方法计算断层活动参量综合指标

2 结果 2.1 跨断层观测反映的断裂运动特征

 图 2 鲜水河断裂带各场地断层三维累积活动量时序曲线 Fig. 2 Time series curves of 3D accumulated activity of the sites at Xianshuihe fault zone

 图 3 安宁河断裂带和则木河断裂带各场地断层垂向累积变化量时序曲线 Fig. 3 Time series curves of vertical accumulatedvariation of the sites at Anninghe fault zone and Zemuhe fault zone

 图 4 云南各场地断层三维累积活动量时序曲线 Fig. 4 Time series curves of 3D accumulated activity of the sites in Yunnan

2.2 断层三维活动量综合指标与地震关系

 图 5 鲜水河断裂带综合指标时序曲线 Fig. 5 Time series curves of synthetic index of Xianshuihe fault zone

 图 6 则木河断裂带综合指标时序曲线 Fig. 6 Time series curve of synthetic index of Zemuhe fault zone

 图 7 Time series curve of synthetic index of Zemuhe fault zone Fig. 7 Time series curves of synthetic index of Yunnan

3 结语

1) 鲜水河断裂带总体呈左旋、拉张运动，并具有明显的分段差异性运动特征；则木河断裂带具有正-逆断阶段性变化特征；滇南和滇西北主要表现为拉张运动。

2) 断层三维累积活动量和改进的灰色关联度综合指标对断裂附近6级以上地震均具有明显的震前异常(加速、转折、波动加剧)及震后趋势转折变化，可能与断裂附近的强震孕育-发生、同震及震后调整影响有关。

3) 通过跨断层综合指标分析可知，川滇地区需要重点关注鲜水河断裂带南东段、则木河断裂带及滇南地区。

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Analysis of Movement Characteristics and Seismic Hazard of Main Active Faults of Sichuan-Yunnan Region
TIAN Xiao1     ZHENG Hongyan1     LI Layue1     ZHANG Chao1
1. The First Monitoring and Application Center, CEA, 7 Naihuo Road, Tianjin 300180, China
Abstract: Using the fault-crossing deformation data of 1980-2019 based on the 3D movement model of fault and the improved gray relation degree method, we study the movement characteristics and seismic hazards of the main active faults of Sichuan-Yunnan region. The results show that: 1) Xianshuihe fault zone shows a sinistral extensional movement on the whole, and has obvious segmented and differentiated movement characteristics. Zemuhe fault zone has the stage characteristics of changing from normal to reverse fault. Southern and northwestern Yunnan mainly show extensional movement. 2) The 3D accumulated activity and the synthetic index of the improved gray relation degree of the faults change obviously before and after the earthquakes of M≥6.0, which may be related to the preparation-occurrence, co-seismic and post-seismic adjustment effects of strong earthquakes near the fault. 3)Through analysis of the fault-crossing synthetic index, we conclude that we should focus on the area of the southeast segment of Xianshuihe fault zone, Zemuhe fault zone and the south of Yunnan.
Key words: Sichuan-Yunnan region; fault-crossing; gray relation degree; seismic hazard