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Risk source identification of complex equipment development project
ZHANG Fan, WEI Fajie, LI Quanbao
School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083, China
Received: 2016-05-04; Accepted: 2016-12-02; Published online: 2016-12-12 09:00
Foundation item: National Natural Science Foundation of China (71332003); National Defense Basic Research Program (JSJC2013601C023)
Corresponding author. WEI Fajie, E-mail:weifajie@buaa.edu.cn
Abstract: Complex equipment development project characters of high risk and many research units result in risk transmission in the development process. To solve the risk source identification problem, a risk source identification method was proposed based on association rule (AR) and decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL). The association rules between risk type and risk factors were solved firstly, and then the interaction of the risk sources was obtained, both with data mining method. Finally, each risk source's relevant parameters were obtained through DEMATEL. Besides, a case was analyzed and the risk sources identification was completed by AR-DEMATLE method on a stage of the data stored in the database of a research unit. The identification result shows that the risk sources corresponding to various risk types and the risk sources leading to risk transmission easily.
Key words: development project     risk transmission     risk source identification     association rule (AR)     decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL)     WEKA

1 基本方法 1.1 关联规则

 (1)

 (2)

1.2 决策实验室分析法

2 风险源识别

 图 1 风险源识别原理与流程图 Fig. 1 Risk source identification principle and flowchart
2.1 数据准备

 风险因素 风险类型 B1 … Bm An B2 B3 … A2 B1 B3 A1 … …

2.2 风险类型与风险因素的关联规则

 风险因素 风险类型 B1 An  An Bm An

2.3 风险源间影响程度识别

 (3)

 (4)
 (5)

 (6)
 (7)
3 案例分析

 (supp：0.01，conf：0.06) (supp:0.01, conf:0.06) 图 2 风险类型与风险因素关联规则 Fig. 2 Association rules of risk type and risk factors

 风险类型 研发风险 质量风险 服务风险 风险源 技术工艺标准化人员素质设计更改 技术工艺 原材料价格拖期交付退货返修响应不及时

 风险源 C B1 B2 B3 B5 B7 B8 B12 B13 B14 B1 1 0.23 0.36 0 0.19 0 0.24 0.43 0.01 B2 0.21 1 0.32 0 0.27 0 0.04 0.12 0.01 B3 0.02 0.02 1 0 0.18 0.12 0.01 0.01 0 B5 0.37 0.29 0.06 1 0.22 0 0.02 0.02 0.30 B7 0.34 0.13 0.04 0 1 0 0.41 0.03 0.03 B8 0.02 0.01 0.01 0 0.05 1 0.03 0.01 0.02 B12 0 0 0 0 0 0.02 1 0.02 0.22 B13 0.16 0.17 0 0 0.05 0.04 0.39 1 0.25 B14 0 0 0 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.01 1

 风险源 T B1 B2 B3 B5 B7 B8 B12 B13 B14 B1 0.64 0.50 0.62 0.01 0.59 0.17 0.97 0.59 0.53 B2 0.52 0.44 0.53 0 0.52 0.14 0.75 0.45 0.37 B3 0.17 0.13 0.21 0 0.19 0.08 0.26 0.13 0.12 B5 0.76 0.60 0.70 0.08 0.71 0.17 1 0.62 0.58 B7 0.47 0.36 0.43 0 0.46 0.11 0.74 0.40 0.39 B8 0.07 0.05 0.06 0 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.06 0.06 B12 0.02 0.01 0.01 0 0.02 0.02 0.11 0.02 0.10 B13 0.33 0.28 0.30 0.01 0.30 0.10 0.59 0.35 0.38 B14 0.02 0.02 0.02 0 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.02 0.10

 风险源 影响度 被影响度 中心度 原因度 中心度排序 属性 B1 4.62 3.01 7.63 1.61 1 原因因素 B2 3.74 2.41 6.15 1.33 3 原因因素 B3 1.29 2.90 4.19 -1.71 7 结果因素 B5 5.24 0.11 5.35 5.13 4 原因因素 B7 3.38 2.90 6.28 0.48 2 原因因素 B8 0.57 0.89 1.46 -0.32 9 结果因素 B12 0.32 4.58 4.90 -4.26 6 结果因素 B13 2.66 2.65 5.31 0.01 5 原因因素 B14 0.28 2.65 2.83 -2.37 8 结果因素

 图 3 风险源原因-结果图 Fig. 3 Risk source cause-result chart

4 结论

1) 该方法可以充分利用数据库中风险事件信息，用关联规则的方式完成针对风险类型的风险源识别以及风险源之间影响程度的识别，再利用决策实验室分析方法分析出风险源的影响程度、被影响程度、中心度、原因度及属性。

2) 该方法与传统风险识别方法相比，主观性明显降低。文中通过对一个实际案例进行分析，结果显示该方法对容易导致风险传导发生的风险源也能有力识别。

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#### 文章信息

ZHANG Fan, WEI Fajie, LI Quanbao

Risk source identification of complex equipment development project

Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronsutics, 2017, 43(5): 975-980
http://dx.doi.org/10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2016.0368