﻿ 基于广义线性模型的固体推进剂贮存寿命评估
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1. 中国运载火箭技术研究院, 北京 100076;
2. 北京航空航天大学 可靠性与系统工程学院, 北京 100191

Storage life assessment for solid propellant based on generalized linear model
HONG Dongpao1 , WANG Yinghua1, GUAN Fei1, MA Xiaobing2
1. China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, Beijing 100076, China;
2. School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China
Abstract:To describe the influence of performance degradation on storage life and reliability for solid propellant, a method of storage life and reliability assessment based on generalized linear model was proposed. According to the characteristic of solid propellant degradation data, the local scale model was introduced to relate the solid propellant tensile strength to storage time, and the storage life and reliability model for solid propellant was established. The maximum likelihood estimations of the model coefficients were obtained with the generalized linear model for Poisson distribution. Furthermore, the approximated confidence interval for the reliability function was obtained with Fisher information matrix according to the normal law. The instance analysis shows that the performance data under varied storage time was used synthetically to enlarge the sample size and increase the information for storage reliability assessment. Thus, the storage life and reliability assessment precision was improved
Key words: solid propellant     tensile strength     storage life     generalized linear model     location scale model

1 固体推进剂性能退化

2 利用退化数据的可靠性建模

3 基于广义线性模型的可靠性评估 3.1 参数估计

σ已知时,可以利用Poisson分布广义线性模型来获得参数ab的极大似然估计[11, 12, 13].

3.2 贮存寿命与可靠性评估

4 数值算例

 序号 贮存年限/a 抗拉强度/MPa 1 1 0.710 2 5 0.680 3 15 0.650

 序号 贮存年限/a 抗拉强度/MPa 1 1 0.710,0.703 2 3 0.687,0.686 3 5 0.681,0.676,0.668 4 7 0.670,0.693,0.665 5 9 0.663,0.661 6 11 0.659,0.658,0.645 7 13 0.655,0.653,0.649 8 15 0.650,0.644

5 结 论

1) 利用位置-刻度模型来描述固体推进剂抗拉强度随贮存时间的变化规律,为度量推进剂性能随贮存时间的变化提供了一种可行的方法.

2) 利用广义线性模型,对贮存寿命模型系数估计进行整体统计推断,有效地增强了对性能数据的适应性,提高了贮存寿命与可靠性评估精度.

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#### 文章信息

HONG Dongpao, WANG Yinghua, GUAN Fei, MA Xiaobing

Storage life assessment for solid propellant based on generalized linear model

Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronsutics, 2015, 41(1): 29-32.
http://dx.doi.org/10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2014.0030